Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Still don't buy it

Before everyone gets too giddy about the rally yesterday, and today's probable rally....

The DOW's 6 best days, percentage wise were in the 1930s. Dead cat bounces and sucker rallies happen often in bear markets. Some of NASDAQ's best days were in 2000. There were 7, 8, 9% rallies in April of that year. That was after a 20% drop from the high and right before another 40% drop from there on.

Nothing really changed over the past 3 days. The bailout is as stupid today as it was on Friday. It will be inflationary and won't do anything other that create a whole new category of unintended consequences. Printing $2t worth of dollars is not economic growth. If that were the case, Zimbabwe would have the world's best economy.

Consumer confidence is still in the shitter. Personal consumption makes up 65% of the economic activity. That won't change any time soon. I was at a Nissan dealer on Saturday and can honestly say I have never seen a car dealer more empty. And this includes the weeks after 9/11.

Personally I need to see some stability before jumping back in. 10% down then 10% up then 10% down is not the kind of market I want anything to do with. This isn't investing it's gambling. And if I'm going to gamble there are more fun ways than on stocks.

1 comment:

NobodySpecial said...

once the election is over things will settle down. then it will be buying time.