Thursday, October 11, 2007

No, Thank You Larry Kudlow

Seeing as how I am one of the pessimists Mr. Kudlow is referring to here is my retort.

Let's take a look at this record DOW you speak of Monsieur Kudlow.

At the peak in 2000, the DOW was at 11,722. Today it is as 14,100. So in 7+years it has gained 20% or less than 3% a year.

3% a year!! Gee wiz Mr.Kudlow, that is just freaking amazing. Why with that kind of return I can retire at 82. I notice you don't mention that gold is at $750 or that silver is at $13.50. Both gold and silver are up over 150% since 2000 due to the fact that the $US has lost 40% of its value. Tell me again why I am so well off with a 20% gain in the Dow? I mean besides the fact that you work on Wall St and your entire livelihood is based on people into investing in stocks.

Let's see what has happened since 2000.

In 2000 the median house in the USA was $169,000. Today is it $220,000. That's a 30% increase.

During the week in 2000 when the DOW hit its previous high the average cost of gas in the US was $1.53. Last week it was $3.01. That is an increase of 97%.

The base price for a 2008 Honda Accord on sale today is $20,360. The base price for a 2000 Accord on sale last time the DOW set a record was $15,350. That is an increase of 32%.

So let's recap:

DOW is up 20%
Gold and silver are up 150%
Housing costs are up 30%
Gas is up 97%
Cost of a Honda is up 32%.

OK you got me Mr. Kudlow, I am a pessimist and with good reason. Pesky things like the cost of a Honda or the cost of a gallon of gas are trivial to you. I know it's hard for you to fathom such nonsense from your multi-million dollar Upper East Side apartment. Out here in the real world, us lowly peons notice and care. We don't have tens of millions invested in the markets. If we make 20% over 7 years our cost of living increases by twice that much, we lose.

Oh but never mind. It's time for another rate cut. We need to get that Dow to 15,000 at all costs. I look forward to the $25,000 base price on the 2009 model. But as long as Goldman's CEO gets his $100M bonus, I am willing to sacrifice.

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