NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Crude oil prices and the value of the dollar have been marching in different directions for months. But that may shift if the Federal Reserve signals on Wednesday that its rate-cutting campaign has come to a close.
One factor that has sent the dollar down and oil up recently has been the Federal Reserve's months-long round of rate cuts. In an attempt to stimulate the ailing U.S. economy, the central bank has cut rates by three percentage points since September. But the rate cuts are also inflationary, weakening the dollar and sending oil prices higher.
Aww gee thanks MSM for coming to the party. This has been going on for a year or more and finally the brilliant minds in the MSM figure out what happened. Which has me really confused because CNN also had a story not too long ago on how 45% of the people thought Bush was deliberately controlling oil prices to help his EVIL OIL buddies. Come on CNN pick a side here. Both arguments can't be the cause of high oil. I know this phrase I am about to use may be a little above your pay grade understanding of things, yet the two arguments are mutually exclusive.
Anyway they go on to say that if Benny B "pauses" in his zest to annihilate the $US, oil another commodities will drop. I'm on the same page there and have put a little of my money where my mouth is. I sold my GLD a little early when gold was $900ish. Didn't ride it all the way up, but I'm happy I sold when I did. Now I have been buying up some puts on USO. I don't see oil going back to $50 any time soon. I do think $120 is just so out of whack with fundamentals it has to go down somewhat. Even with the devaluation of the dollar, China, India, etc, this price run-up is still partially due to speculation and that portion of it has to collapse sooner or later.
Plus with the recession here, it just makes no sense for oil to keep on climbing in 2008.