Monday, June 9, 2008

Is that it?

After a 5 days of nothing but fawning, front page publicity, I see that Obama leads McCain by a couple of points in national polls. Pretty much the same lead he had a week ago. You'd think after all the non-stop coverage in the MSM, his lead would have increased over that time. I'm guessing this is not a good sign for him and shows that he may have reached a ceiling of support.

It is also worth nothing that Dukakis at one point had a 17% lead over Bush I in 1988 and went on to lose 40 states to Bush. It is also worth noting that Ross Perot at one point was leading both Bush I and Clinton I during the summer of 1992. Gore and Kerry also led by fairly big margins in 2000 and 2004 before losing. So the fact that Obama is now only a little ahead, at a time where he should be well ahead in the polls, might be an ominous sign for the fall.

Usually I would be happy about this. But then I remind myself that oh shit, McCain will be the winner if Obama flops. And my joy vanishes.

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