Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Accuracy, we don't need no stinkin' accuracy

Final popular vote in 2004 was 51/48 Bush.

Here is what the polls were saying in late Oct:

Survey USA poll taken 10/23- 10/25
Kerry leading 49-46

Zogby poll taken 10/21 - 10/24
Kerry leading 47-45

American Research Group poll taken 10/23 - 10/25
Kerry leading 50-47

Fox News poll taken 11/1
Kerry leading 48-45

They were about 6% off, in favor of Kerry.

This time around Obama is ahead by 6% on average using the same pollsters that got it so wrong in 2004. And as part of that 6% there is a poll released this week showing Obama winning by 1 as well as a poll showing Obama winning by 14. Both taken during the same time period with some stark differences in the results.

Here is my own poll, although granted rather unscientific. 71% of people say polls are bullshit 91% of the time.

I'm Ed and I approved this message.

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