Thursday, November 29, 2007


Looks like I was a little premature in betting against the retailers Monday. Should have waited one more day. I still have confidence this is yet one more in a long series of head fakes in a long term down trend.

$4 gas in the Midwest this morning should put a bit of a damper on the party. Sears earnings being way below forecast should be another. Sears is a retailer right? And when gas hits $4 people have less money to spend on useless shit at retailers right?

And maybe just maybe all the retailers are cutting prices too much in a desperate attempt to lure broke customers. And I'm no Wall St expert but isn't the idea to sell at a profit? Or is that old joke about losing money on every sale but making it up in volume back? Oh wait, that is a concern for some.

NEW YORK ( -- Are the nation's retailers giving away the store?

Blockbuster discounts have so far attracted hordes of shoppers this holiday season, which was officially kicked off the day after Thanksgiving. But analysts fear that many retailers - anxious about flagging consumer spending - might have sacrificed too much of their profit by cutting prices."We're surprised at how well the traffic numbers looked, especially on Black Friday," said Love Goel, chairman and CEO of Growth Ventures Group, a specialty retail private equity firm.

Side note: Love Goel...interesting name.

According to CNBC that is all irrelevant. Interest rates will be cut another 1/4 point. So the visa goes from 22.5% to 22.25% APR and spurs people to go to the mall.

We'll see who's right I guess in a few weeks/months when it all settles out.

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