Thursday, November 29, 2007

Lies lies and more lies

If the head of GM said buying a Chevy was the best thing you could do, would you take him at his word? Or would you question his bias. Rational people would question his bias and ignore his views.

Lawrence Yun, the head of the NAR (National Association of Realtors) says you should buy a house now since blah blah blah. Does anyone question his bias? Nope. Not in the MSM at least. His advice is taken as gospel. Not even the slightest questioning of his advice. Notice also there is no data to support his findings, only his opinion that real estate is a good investment. Kinda like asking the CEO of GM why I should buy a Chevy over a Toyota and him replying because I think Chevys are better. Not a very convincing answer is it? Yet that is exactly what Yun is saying.

Never mind that Yun's predecessor, David Lereah was saying housing can't possibly fall. He even wrote a book called Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through The End of The Decade—And How to Profit From Them. It is available used for $0.68 on Amazon. Better buy your copy fast, since just like real estate this deal will soon pass you buy and you will priced out forever.

Aside from the world's longest book title, he was also dead wrong. He wrote this book in 2005, right at the peak of he housing bubble. And then he spent all of 2006 telling everyone the boom would continue for the rest of the decade. And finally earlier this year as he was so discredited by anyone with a 1/3 of a brain, he was finally fired and replaced with the new Liar in Chief, Lawrence Yun.

Now about SLC: here is the chart for the latest asking prices for homes: Would you buy into this declining market? If that is one of the top 10 markets, I'd hate to see what a bottom 10 market looks like. Oh wait, here's one. And another one here.

The difference is in a top 10 market if you buy now you will lose some money. In a bottom 10 you may very well be financially ruined. Either way, I'm sticking my my Toyota for now.


Anonymous said...

What is your take on that?

Ed said...

My take is that we will soon see $100B worth of new taxes to bail these morons out.

The final paragraph is the key. Nobody really knows how much of this stuff is out there. Remember, when the mortgage collapse started about a year ago, the so-called experts scoffed and said it was "only" sub-prime. Sub-prime was only 15% of all mortgages so no biggie they said.

None of them had any clue about the magnitude of it all. And none of them have any clue now. The $100B could be $500B for all we know. Wall St. bonuses are being calculated right now. No way anyone will risk bonuses by revealing anything major. Wait until the first 2 weeks of Jan and a lot more bad news will be coming out.

And also, Citi, BofA, Goldman, etc didn't just pull this off in the US. They did it in Europe as well where the housing bubble inflated even more than domestically and is starting to crash as well.

Here is the current state of England's housing market. Not good.