Saturday, December 15, 2007

Atlanta is Different

No housing bubble in Atlanta. Therefore no housing crash coming. Or so say the "experts" aka commissioned real estate agents and their bought and paid for shills in the local media.

But even the local media can't hide this:

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 12/10/07

Foreclosure notices for a 13-county area of metro Atlanta hit an all-time high of 58,076 in 2007. That's up 29 percent from the 2006 total. Many experts blame increasing payments of adjustable rate mortgages for sparking the national mortgage meltdown. But metro Atlanta properties facing public auction often involve high-rate mortgages that have not even experienced their first increase in payments, said Barry Bramlett, a vice president at Equity Depot.

or this

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 11/25/07

The white paint has barely dried on the cathedral ceilings. And some of the stacked-stone chimneys have yet to crackle with that first fire. Here, in a half-built neighborhood near Grayson, everything is freshly minted, down to the suburban dreams. Yet earlier this month, outside the Gwinnett County courthouse, nearly half the subdivision was auctioned off — the latest casualty of a foreclosure crisis that has pounded model-home sales offices around metro Atlanta.

So are homeowners like Mark Braswell, who moved into Chandler Woods Estates last July. From his cul-de-sac lot, he expected to see property values rise with each new home. But sales slowed. And construction nearly ground to a halt.

Last month, "Reduced" stickers joined the "For Sale" signs that lined Cattail Ives Road. Then, on a record-setting Tuesday for foreclosures in Georgia, the signs disappeared altogether. The properties went to the bank that issued the construction loans in the first place.

Darn it, and here I am renting and missing out on the American Dream of home ownership.

Oh but I know, NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY. Or so the commissioned real estate and their bought and paid for media shills tell me. A great time to buy, like it was a great time to buy last month and 3 months ago and 6 months ago and a year ago. How's all that working out for you Mark? I bet your commissioned real estate agents told you the house would be worth 15% more by now right? And you like a foolish man believed those lies. The idea of renting repulsed you right Markie Mark? Only poor people rent. Renting is throwing your money away. You don't get tax breaks renting. What would your friends say if you rented? What would your wife's friends think? There go the invitations to the cocktail parties. And of course when you rent you can't borrow $50K from your house to buy that new Range Rover. And without the Range Rover how will you ever score a good valet spot at a Buckhead hotspot? It is simply unimaginable the horror you would face.

Well sorry Markie, you fucked up and fucked up big. Your greed got the better of you. And I have no sympathy for you. Quite the opposite actually. I hope your subdivision becomes a crack infested shithole as often happens in high foreclosure areas. Hey but you'll still have the privilege of being a home "owner" and that will all make it worthwhile.

And if you want a good example of the views commissioned real estate agents continue to hold, look here.

Don’t worry about housing prices collapsing if local industry is doing well. Pick up a copy of the AJC and you’ll get a sense of the economic environment. Most parts of Atlanta didn’t see a huge bubble, so there is nothing to pop. I don’t care what you’ve heard, good homes are still selling quickly and some buyers are getting great deals today.

This is what we’ve been waiting for folks. Homes are on sale right now. Once prices start going back up, there is no telling how long you’ll have to wait for an opportunity like this to come along again.

He doesn't care what I read. Of course why should I pay attention to hard data I read? I should ignore all that and instead listen to him. Buddy, I have news for you. Prices are not going to go up for a long, long time.

And why are homes on sale today? If there was no bubble and there is no crash happening, why is there a sale? Businesses put their products on sale when they aren't selling. According to you everything is A-OK. So why the need for a sale? You can't have homes selling quickly AND buyers getting good deals. It can't be a buyer's AND a seller's market simultaneously. Well I suppose it can be when you talk out of both ends of your mouth.

Homes are on sale now and they will be on sale tomorrow and in 6 months and 2 years from now.

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