Friday, December 28, 2007

Oracle at a 6 year high

Woo hoo!! High five everyone. CNBC orgasm time. That's right Oracle is at a 6 year high. It is trading at $23 a share the highest since 2001. BBBBooo YAH!!

OK now put the Kool-Aid down for a second and think of what that means. It means that the tech bubble bust was so severe that six years later share prices are finally starting to crawl back up to bubble levels. And I mean crawling, since Oracle was trading at $45 in 2000. Seven years after the bubble burst and Oracle - the new darling of Wall St - is still 50% below peak in nominal dollars. Factor inflation into it and Oracle is anywhere between 70% and 80% lower than 2000 peak pricing in real dollars, depending on whose inflation numbers you believe.

The peak for Oracle was in August 2000 at $45. In August 2004, the stock was trading at $10.

The peak for housing related stocks was mid 2005 to early 2006. For financials it was late 2006 to early 2007. Yet the so-called experts - the ones saying Oracle was a STRONG BUY in 2000 - are saying the bottom is here for both financials and housing related stocks.

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

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