Thursday, December 27, 2007

Remember 12 months ago

when Realtors were saying now is a great time to buy? Remember 12 months ago when so-called experts said the housing crash had hit bottom? Here we are a year later and this is how accurate their "predictions" turned out:

Plummeting prices turning into an avalanche

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price index shows home prices in the nation's major metropolitan areas declined by 6.7 per cent in October from a year ago. That exceeded the previous record annual drop of 6.3 percent in April 1991, when the economy was in the throes of recession. October's prices were 1.4 percent below September's.

The home price index began showing annual declines in early 2007, but falling prices have accelerated in recent months as a malfunctioning mortgage market and rising foreclosures helped burst the housing bubble. The 10 cities that make up the composite index include some places most affected by the fast-growing home price bubble over the last few years. Miami home prices are now down 12.4 per cent from a year ago. Prices are down 11.1 per cent in San Diego and 10.7 per cent in Las Vegas.

An expanded index that encompasses 20 cities, for which data is available only back to 2001, fell 6.1percent. Eleven areas posted their single largest monthly declines on record in October.

Atlanta and Dallas joined the list of cities with price declines. Among the 20, only Charlotte, Portland, and Seattle stand out as areas where prices have risen over last year.

Oh what's this? Atlanta and Dallas is in the red? What? Huh? Realtors swore up and down Atlanta and Dallas were immune to price drops. It's different in Dallas and Atlanta, remember? Since there was no bubble they said, there would be no crash. Of course that is bullshit. The crash is everywhere thanks to an orgy of over lending and over spending, including Dallas and Atlanta. The Range Rovers and Hummers bought in Dallas and Atlanta with funny HELOC money will as devastating in Atlanta and Dallas and Las Vegas. Anyone who thinks their city is different is deluding themselves.

And now these very same people who a year ago straight out lied are spewing the exact same lies again. Now is a great time to buy. Real estate is a great investment. Buy now or be priced out forever. Uhm yeah, I'll get right on that.

As for Portland and Seattle: looking at this and this I think those number will be turning mighty fast. Maybe YOY comparing late 2006 to late 2007 prices rose. Compare early 2008 with early 2007 and you will see some nasty price declines there as well. Seattle, Portland and Charlotte just came to the party a little late. Their hangover started a little later, that's all. Just like Dallas and Atlanta aren't different, neither is Seattle or Portland or Charlotte. Someone making $75K in LA can't afford his $750K home. His counterpart in Charlotte making $45K can't afford his $450K home either. And the result will be the same, massive drops in prices.

Doesn't matter though. All the spin and lies won't change what is happening. Real estate is continuing to crash at a record pace. The boom was the biggest ever, the crash will be the biggest ever. We are still early on in the game and the avalanche is still gathering force. 6.7% declines will be yearned for in 2 years from now when news reports will be talking about 25% and 30% declines nationally with 50%+ declines in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and California.

For anyone who thinks that it is impossible for prices to fall that much more, just remember in 2000 NASDAQ was at 5000. Today it is at 2700. The very same MSM industry shills who are downplaying the housing crash were saying buy in 1999. The very same lying whores were saying there is a new paradigm and talking about DOW 36,000 in 1999. The very same lying whores who in later 2005 said there was no housing bubble and prices could never fall.

Same lies told by the same liars over and over again. My only question is why do people still listen to anything they have to say? How many more times to they have to be discredited before the masses clue in and realize what is happening?

No comments: