Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Housing Bottom Call #1899

Good news everyone!! The housing crisis is ovah. That's right, good times are here, better go out and buy 7 Miami condos before you get priced out forever.

How can you argue with this:

NEW YORK ( -- Sales of newly constructed single-family homes spiked 11% in June to an annualized rate of 384,000 homes, according to a report released Monday. The gain over May was much greater than expected. A consensus of housing industry analysts had forecast seasonally adjusted sales of 352,000, according to

DAMN!! 11% spike. That's incredibly good news right? Well uhm, not really if you keep reading.

However, sales are still 21% below the levels of a year ago, when new homes sold in June at an annualized rate of 488,000, according to the report released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Four years ago, during the height of the housing boom, the sales rate for June was 1,374,000, nearly three-and-a-half times higher than last month.

2008 was one of the worst years ever real estate wise. This year the numbers are 21% lower than that. Yet somehow this is evidence of a housing bottom. Makes sense if you are a real estate shill or one of the MSM's paid shill spokeman. Like oh I dunno how about Peter Morici who says:

"That is really good news. Considering what's going on in existing home sales, with all the foreclosure activity sending down home prices, for new homes to jump like that is a good indicator that the economy is bottoming out."

Ok Peter. You go ahead and forecast yet another bottom. Just like you and your ilk did in 2006 and 2007 and 2008 and the first half of 2009. One of these days you will be right and housing will bottom. But that isn't happening for at least another year. Unemployment is at double digits but housing is posied for a boom. Come on people, do you really think the American public is that stupid and gullible? Wait. This nation of idiots** did vote for Obama thinking he would pay for their mortgages and gas. I stand corrected.

This "optimism" is pure bullshit because once again the media is playing the MOM vs. YOY gain. Sure June had more sales than May. June always has more sales than may. What counts when comparing figures is year over year. It's like saying June was hotter than May therefore there is global warming.

Allow me if I may to offer a sports analogy. The housing market is a football team that is 0-12. The average margin of loss has been 30 points. The team just scored a field goal in the 4th quarter of the 13th game and lost 31-6. And after the field goal the local sports rag just announced the team's slump is over and they're positioned well to make the playoffs because they lost by less than 30 points today.

** Bill Maher got some flack for calling the US people stupid. I happen to agree with him 100%. He thinks they're stupid for different reasons than me. But make no mistake, this country is populated by the dim, the uninformed, the gullible, the impressionable, the uneducated, uniformed and just plain lazy. Any country that freely votes for a man like Obama cannot be called anything but stupid. Well maybe imbecilic. Yeah that fits a little better.

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